By Professor Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen Understanding US foreign policy is difficult even for seasoned analysts, as it varies significantly from country to country and is driven less by ideology than by strategic interest. Relying solely on newspaper commentary makes such understanding even more elusive.
At its core, US foreign policy is designed to protect and promote American national interests, often at any cost. Historical examples include U.S. interventions in Panama under Noriega or continued pressure on Venezuela under Maduro. Values such as democracy and human rights, while important, are frequently applied selectively when weighed against geopolitical priorities.
The Asia-Pacific Context: Containing China
In the Asia-Pacific region, the overriding objective of the United States is to contain the rapid rise of China. Over the past two decades, China has emerged as a global economic powerhouse, leveraging trade, investment, and development assistance to expand its influence.
Unlike Western donors, China approaches developing countries with tangible offers—large-scale infrastructure financing, quick implementation, and minimal political conditionality.
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In contrast, Western countries, including the United States, often offer advice, warnings, or threats of sanctions. When financial assistance is provided, it typically comes with extensive conditions. As a result, China is steadily gaining friends while the United States is losing influence in much of the developing world.
People in poorer countries, including Bangladesh, are exposed through television and social media to the amenities of developed nations such as uninterrupted electricity, modern transportation, clean water, and advanced infrastructure. Naturally, they expect similar progress at home. When China offers financing to meet these aspirations, governments are inclined to accept. This is not ideology; it is a developmental necessity.
Ironically, during the 1960s, President Lyndon B. Johnson’s foreign assistance programs helped the United States win hearts and minds across the developing world. A similar approach today might have preserved U.S. influence far more effectively than coercive diplomacy.
China’s Belt And Road Initiative And Bangladesh
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe through infrastructure and investment. Bangladesh formally joined the BRI in October 2016 during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Dhaka. China announced approximately USD 37 billion in potential assistance: USD 23 billion for the public sector and USD 13 billion for private investment.
However, contrary to Western media narratives, the Sheikh Hasina government exercised extreme prudence. By 2023, Bangladesh had received only about USD 5 billion in Chinese financing: roughly 1% of GDP. Chinese companies were engaged primarily because they were the lowest bidders, not due to political alignment.
Bangladesh: Chinese Debt Trap
Claims that Bangladesh fell into a “Chinese debt trap” are demonstrably false. Bangladesh’s total external debt stood at around 16% of GDP during Hasina’s period, far below Sri Lanka (over 100%), Pakistan (about 65%), Malaysia (around 69%), or even the United States (approximately 65%). According to the IMF, caution is warranted only when external debt exceeds 56% of GDP. Bangladesh was never close to such a threshold.
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In reality, Bangladesh’s major creditors have been the World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank, Japan, and Russia. Despite the Awami League government’s willingness to seek Western financing, Western countries were often reluctant to provide large-scale credit.
BNP And Its Pro-China Orientation
The BNP government under Khaleda Zia pursued a declared “Look East Policy,” initiating Bangladesh’s military procurement from China. Subsequent Awami League governments diversified defense purchases, sourcing equipment from Turkey, the United Kingdom, and Europe. Bangladesh signed agreements to purchase naval vessels from the UK, aircraft from Airbus, and a second satellite from France, demonstrating strategic diversification rather than dependency.
The BNP leadership, however, remains largely pro-China. Its Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, was openly pro-China during his student years, as were many senior BNP leaders. Reports of corruption among BNP leaders further fuel concerns that Beijing could exercise influence through financial inducements.
Despite these concerns, it must be acknowledged that the BNP retains substantial grassroots support and remains the second-largest political force in the country.
The United States And Jamaat-e-Islam
Reports indicate that some Bangladeshi nationals employed by the US Embassy in Dhaka have had past affiliations with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) or its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir. While professional competence should not be questioned on the basis of past political affiliation alone, concerns arise when broader strategic alignment is considered.
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Media reports, including a controversial claim published in The Washington Post, suggest that the United States may be considering tacit support for Jamaat-e-Islami in the February 12 election.
Critics rightly question the credibility of such claims, noting the strict security protocols governing US diplomatic missions.
Nevertheless, the idea that the United States would support Jamaat-e-Islami raises profound contradictions. Jamaat bars women from senior leadership roles, promotes the implementation of Sharia law, and has ideological links to extremist narratives. Its student wing, Chhatra Shibir, has been designated by the United States as a terrorist organisation. Jamaat’s radical elements openly espouse hostility toward Western values and, at times, toward Americans themselves.
It is difficult to imagine that either side could genuinely compromise on such deeply entrenched principles.
The Awami League: A Pragmatic And Reliable Partner
The Awami League (AL), Bangladesh’s oldest and largest political party, remains the most viable and reliable partner for the United States. Historically, Awami League leaders supported U.S.-led security arrangements during the Cold War. Despite U.S. opposition to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 under the Nixon-Kissinger administration, a stance driven by Cold War geopolitics, the Awami League maintained a pragmatic approach toward Washington.
Although the USA opposed Bangladesh’s independence, its founder, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, met President Gerald Ford in 1974 and openly solicited his support. The US government, once Bangladesh got its victory on December 16, 1971, steadfastly supported the inclusion of Bangladesh as a member of the UN and has ever since supported Bangladesh.
Even after tragic events such as the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975 and allegations of foreign involvement, the Awami League consistently pursued constructive engagement with the United States.
Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh practised a balanced foreign policy—maintaining cordial relations with neighbours, engaging China economically, and strengthening multifaceted ties with the United States without compromising sovereignty or strategic alignment.
What Lies Ahead?
Among the three political forces—BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the Awami League—the Awami League remains the only party capable of ensuring long-term national stability, regional security, and a balanced geopolitical posture in the Asia-Pacific region.
The current interim government under Muhammad Yunus has presided over economic decline, institutional collapse, judicial paralysis, and deteriorating law and order. The resulting instability and rise of radical violence have significantly increased public support for the ousted Awami League government, with favorability reportedly exceeding 70% now.
Being afraid of its massive support, the Yunus government banned it from participating in the upcoming election on February 12 and detained over half a million of its supporters in jails without trials. Being afraid of the Awami League, the Yunus government, just like Nazi Hitler, who tried to annihilate Jews, has started annihilating three groups of people of Bangladesh, namely (1) supporters of AL, (2) those who cherished the principles and ideals of Bangladesh’s Liberation War, and (3) the Hindu minority that always supports the AL. Hitler was not successful; Yunus will also fail.
Given these realities, the mutual strategic interests of both the United States and Bangladesh would be best served through a renewed and strengthened partnership with the Awami League.
Professor Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen: Freedom fighter, distinguished academic, former Foreign Minister of Bangladesh.
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