Bangladesh is teetering on the edge of profound instability following the death of jihadist mob leader Sharif Osman Hadi, which hardline groups are leveraging to push for control of state power. Backed by Jamaat-e-Islami, these forces have intensified communal violence, anti-India campaigns, and attacks on institutions, raising fears of the nation descending into extremism.
An upcoming election on February 12, 2026, hangs in the balance as rival factions manoeuvre amid escalating chaos.
Osman Goni, alias Sharif Osman Hadi, 32, the spokesperson of Inqilab Moncho, was aspiring to contest the parliamentary seat for Dhaka-8. He was shot on December 12 in Dhaka’s Paltan area. He succumbed to his injuries on December 18 after being transported to Singapore for treatment. Reports indicate that the move to Singapore was orchestrated by Jamaat-e-Islami affiliates to buy time for strategic preparations.
Immediately after the shooting, social media posts by Abu Shadik Kayem, an Islami Chhatra Shibir leader and DUCSU VP, accused Mirza Abbas, a BNP leader and Dhaka-8 candidate, of involvement. This sparked harassment against Abbas when he visited Hadi at Dhaka Medical College Hospital. The incident prompted Tarique Rahman, the BNP’s acting chairperson, to announce his return to Bangladesh on December 25, aiming to rally support and stabilise his party’s position.
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A parallel narrative emerged blaming the shooter on affiliations with the Awami League’s student wing, Chhatra League, and alleging the perpetrator fled to India. This has fueled a nationwide anti-India propaganda push, directly supported by Jamaat-e-Islami.
Wave of Violence and Vandalism
Hadi’s death announcement on December 18 triggered immediate and widespread unrest. Attacks targeted the homes of Awami League leaders and activists across the country. Indian diplomatic outposts, including the Assistant High Commissions in Chattogram and Khulna, faced assaults.
Media outlets Prothom Alo and The Daily Star had their buildings set ablaze, while cultural institutions like Chhayanaut, Udichi, and the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre were vandalised. Renewed damage was also reported at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic residence in Dhanmondi 32.
On December 20, following Hadi’s funeral prayers, looters stormed the National Parliament complex. Leaders from the anti-discrimination student movement issued vehement anti-India statements, exacerbating tensions. Mahmudur Rahman, editor of the newspaper Amar Desh and a central figure in the unrest, publicly threatened to “declare war” on Indian citizens and institutions in Bangladesh if Hadi’s alleged killer is not extradited by December 25. Prominent militant figures, including Jasim Uddin Rahmani and Harun Izhar, have also made public appearances, delivering inflammatory speeches.
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Surge in Communal Violence Against Minorities
The political turmoil has spilt over into severe communal clashes, particularly targeting the Hindu community. On December 18 in Bhaluka, Dipu Chandra Das was beaten and burned alive amid accusations of religious defamation. Two days later, in Jhenaidah, Gopal Chandra Das was assaulted after being labelled an Indian intelligence operative due to wearing a red thread on his wrist—a common Hindu custom. In Raozan, Chittagong, the home of Babul Das was torched.
Hindus nationwide are reported to be living in extreme fear, with the violence intensifying under the guise of exploiting Hadi’s death to impose fundamentalist ideologies. This pattern suggests a coordinated effort to instil nationwide fundamentalism, using grief and outrage as catalysts.
International Reactions and Travel Warnings
The escalating crisis has drawn international concern. The United States and the United Kingdom have issued travel advisories for Bangladesh, urging their citizens to exercise caution and remain in secure locations. These warnings highlight the risks posed by the ongoing violence and potential for further deterioration.
Plots and Military Involvement
Under the pretext of Hadi’s funeral, Jamaat-e-Islami and allied hardline groups have mobilised supporters from across Bangladesh into Dhaka. Discussions are underway about forming a new “revolutionary” or interim government, potentially led by Mahmudur Rahman. This push is reportedly sponsored and logistically supported by Jamaat-e-Islami, viewing the moment as a prime opportunity to seize power.
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A faction within the Bangladesh Army, described as hardline and Pakistan-leaning, is allegedly involved. Lieutenant General Kamrul Hasan, the Principal Staff Officer (PSO) known for ties to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), is said to be leading this group. Retired officers, including Brigadier General (Retd.) Abdullah Hil Azmi, son of convicted war criminal Ghulam Azam, are also implicated.
The broader strategy appears aimed at thwarting the BNP’s potential dominance in the February 12, 2026, election, which was announced without Awami League participation. By engineering divisions and overshadowing BNP’s momentum—previously bolstered by ties with the interim administration under Muhammad Yunus—fundamentalists seek to prevent a BNP landslide. Even Tarique Rahman’s planned return may not garner the anticipated support amid the chaos.
Anti-India Narrative and Foreign Backing
At the heart of the unrest is an aggressive anti-India campaign, with risks of targeted attacks on Indian missions or nationals as part of a destabilisation tactic. Any Indian retaliation could be exploited to justify delaying the election, ensuring Jamaat’s influence persists until it can secure power.
Pakistan and Turkey are providing overt support to Jamaat-e-Islami. Airport intelligence suggests that on December 19, at least 18 operatives entered Bangladesh via flights from Dubai and Turkish Airlines to aid on-ground operations.
Political observers have stated that the Hadi shooting has been portrayed as a deliberate trigger to transform Bangladesh into an extremist state. With fundamentalist forces gaining ground, the nation’s political future remains uncertain, potentially reshaping regional dynamics in South Asia. As the situation evolves, calls for restraint and dialogue grow, but the immediate outlook points to continued volatility.
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