Bangladesh stands at a perilous juncture, with alarming reports suggesting that the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus is orchestrating a sinister plan to form a militia force, potentially to ignite a civil war and derail the February 2026 elections. This analysis, drawing on recent articles and intelligence reports, examines the growing influence of extremist groups, communal forces, and Pakistan-backed jihadists, particularly through the National Citizen Party (NCP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, under the Yunus regime.
The convergence of these forces, coupled with alleged US geopolitical manoeuvring, raises profound concerns about Bangladesh’s sovereignty, secular identity, and regional stability. This analysis explores the multifaceted threats posed by these developments, including the manipulation of electoral processes, the destabilisation of the Bangladesh Army, and the resurgence of jihadist ideologies with the potential to inflame communal tensions and provoke conflict with India.
Reports suggest that the Yunus administration is training 8,850 youths in firearms, karate, judo, and taekwondo at seven centres, as announced by NCP leader and Youth and Sports Adviser Asif Mahmud Sajeeb Bhuyain. This move, described as a “sinister blueprint” to orchestrate chaos, is allegedly designed to cancel the upcoming elections and cement Yunus’ grip on power.
The NCP, portrayed as Yunus’ “private militia,” is accused of being a tool to replicate the violent July 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina’s government. The discovery of AK-47 ammunition in Asif’s luggage at an airport and NCP’s conflict with the Election Commission over its “Shapla” symbol further fuel suspicions of a deliberate strategy to sow anarchy.
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The NCP’s demand for the Shapla symbol, coupled with threats to boycott registration without it, signals an intent to disrupt the electoral process. Nasiruddin Patwari, NCP’s chief coordinator, provocatively questioned the feasibility of a fair election in February amidst “burning” airports and public insecurity.
This rhetoric aligns with broader allegations that Yunus is engineering NCP’s political irrelevance to justify delaying or cancelling polls, mirroring tactics seen in post-Arab Spring civil wars in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, where internal chaos paved the way for foreign intervention.
The NCP’s actions are deeply intertwined with the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, both of which are accused of collaborating with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and global jihadist networks. Jamaat’s history as a collaborator in the 1971 genocide, coupled with its current push for an Islamic state, poses a grave threat to Bangladesh’s secular fabric.
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman’s October 22, 2025, apology for Jamaat’s actions since 1947, deliberately vague about 1971, is widely seen as a tactical manoeuvre to sanitise the party’s image without addressing its war crimes. This apology, echoed by former leaders like Ghulam Azam, lacks a formal party resolution, undermining its sincerity and fueling public scepticism.
Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Amir, Dr. Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher, escalated tensions by declaring a potential “Ghazwa-e-Hind” against India, claiming 50 lakh youths would fight as “true freedom fighters” to erase Jamaat’s 1971 stigma. Speaking in New York on September 27, 2025, Taher’s rhetoric, invoking guerrilla warfare and Islamic prophecies, signals a dangerous shift toward communal mobilisation.
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His proposal to fund economic schemes with Zakat, potentially diverting billions to militant activities, and Jamaat’s advocacy for a Jizya tax on Hindus, as articulated by Shafiqur, further inflame communal tensions. These moves threaten to marginalise Bangladesh’s Hindu minority and destabilise interfaith harmony, reminiscent of historical pogroms.
The NCP, often labelled Jamaat’s “B-team,” amplifies these communal threats. Its demand for mandatory armed youth training, as voiced by Nahid Islam, echoes the rhetoric of banned groups like Ansar al-Islam and Hizb ut-Tahrir, which advocate jihad against India and envision a “Greater Bangladesh” encompassing parts of India’s Seven Sisters.
The display of a “Saltanat-e-Bangla” map at Dhaka University, backed by a Turkish NGO, underscores foreign involvement in stoking territorial ambitions. These actions, combined with NCP’s alleged role in orchestrating violence during the 2024 uprising, suggest a concerted effort to radicalise youth and provoke communal strife.
Pakistan-Backed Jihadist Blueprint
Pakistan’s ISI is a central player in this unfolding crisis, leveraging Jamaat and NCP to advance its anti-India agenda. Retired Brigadier General Abdullahil Amaan Azmi, son of war criminal Ghulam Azam, and Major Syed Ziaul Haque, an al-Qaeda-linked jihadist, are accused of forming an Islamic Revolutionary Army (IRA) to undermine the Bangladesh Army.
Azmi, who resurfaced in August 2024, allegedly collaborates with pro-Pakistani officers like Lieutenant General Kamrul Hasan and ISI officials in Dhaka’s Mohakhali DOHS office. Intelligence reports indicate Azmi and Zia are training Rohingya refugees and stranded Pakistanis as suicide squads for attacks in India’s northeast and Myanmar’s Rakhine State, supported by arms shipments from Karachi.
The ISI’s blueprint, as detailed in The Daily Republic, aims to weaken Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman and install Azmi, who rejects Bangladesh’s secular symbols, as a pro-Pakistan leader.
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Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari’s celebration of Hasina’s ouster and admissions by Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jama’at-ut-Dawa of their role in the 2024 coup highlight Pakistan’s vested interest in destabilising Bangladesh. The Yunus regime’s inaction against jailbreaks freeing thousands of militants and its release of figures like Jasimuddin Rahmani further suggest complicity in this jihadist resurgence.
Hefazat-e-Islam, another ISI-backed group, has formed a jihadist alliance under leaders like Mufti Harun Izhar and Muhibullah Babunagari, with meetings involving interim government advisor Asif Nazrul, an alleged ISI agent. These alliances, coupled with Turkish support for groups like “Saltanat-e-Bangla,” indicate a broader Islamist network aiming to transform Bangladesh into a hub for regional jihad, threatening both India and Myanmar.
US Geopolitical Manoeuvring and Civil War Fears
The United States, pursuing its Indo-Pacific strategy, is accused of enabling this chaos to counter China’s influence. Joint military exercises like “Pacific Angel 25-3” and the delivery of RQ-21 Blackjack drones signal increased US presence in Chittagong, a strategic hub near Myanmar and India’s northeast.
The mysterious death of US Green Beret Terence Arvel Jackson in Dhaka, reportedly involved in training Rohingya militants, fuels speculation of CIA involvement in destabilising operations. Critics argue that Yunus, backed by US-funded NGOs and the National Endowment for Democracy, is implementing an “Arab Spring” model to provoke civil war, mirroring Syria and Libya, where internal strife justified foreign intervention.
The ICT-BD trials of 15 army officers, initiated on October 8, 2025, for alleged crimes during the 2024 riots, are seen as a US-Jamaat-ISI ploy to weaken the army’s pro-liberation core. These trials, bypassing the Army Act of 1952, violate constitutional norms and target officers like Major General Sheikh Md. Sarwar Hossain for their role in suppressing Jamaat-orchestrated violence.
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Sheikh Hasina, from exile, condemned the ICT-BD as a “Jamaat Court,” alleging it serves Yunus’ agenda to purge secular elements. The tribunal’s new Section 20-C, barring accused officers from public office, further facilitates this purge, potentially paving the way for Azmi’s leadership and a pro-Pakistan military alignment.
The US’s alleged support for the Arakan Army and Rohingya militants, via arms and logistics through Bangladesh, aims to weaken Myanmar’s junta and China’s regional influence. However, it risks turning Bangladesh into a jihadist hub, with Chittagong’s madrasas and shrines targeted to provoke sectarian conflict. Such a scenario could justify US military presence under the guise of counterterrorism, securing strategic assets like St. Martin’s Island.
Communal Tensions and Regional Implications
The rise of communal forces, particularly targeting Hindus, is a direct consequence of the Jamaat and NCP’s rhetoric. Shafiqur’s call for Jizya and Taher’s jihadist threats risk alienating Bangladesh’s 10% Hindu population, echoing the 1971 genocide. Reports of NCP and Jamaat-backed mobs organising under “Touhidi Janata” and attacking Hindu communities, coupled with demands to ban ISKCON, heighten fears of communal violence.
These actions not only threaten internal harmony but also strain relations with India, which has expressed concern over the “Saltanat-e-Bangla” map and jihadist plans targeting its northeast.
Regionally, the destabilisation of Bangladesh could embolden Myanmar’s Arakan Army and fuel insurgencies in India’s Seven Sisters, disrupting the Bay of Bengal’s security architecture. The Yunus regime’s failure to address these threats, combined with its reliance on Jamaat and NCP, risks aligning Bangladesh with Pakistan’s anti-India axis, alienating key allies like India and Russia.
The alleged formation of a militia under Yunus’ regime, coupled with the rise of Jamaat, NCP, and Pakistan-backed jihadists, poses an existential threat to Bangladesh’s democracy and secular identity. Shafiqur’s tactical apology and Taher’s inflammatory rhetoric reveal Jamaat’s intent to whitewash its 1971 crimes while mobilising communal forces.
The NCP’s role as a proxy militia, combined with ISI-orchestrated plots to Islamize the army, signals a broader conspiracy to provoke civil war and derail elections. US complicity, driven by geopolitical ambitions, further complicates this crisis, risking Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
Urgent action is needed to restore military autonomy, ensure electoral transparency, and counter extremist narratives. Bangladesh must reject the “Arab Spring” trap, strengthen its secular institutions, and hold accountable those stoking communal and jihadist fires. Without decisive measures, the nation risks descending into chaos, with devastating consequences for its people and the region.
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