The stories of National Citizen Party (NCP) leaders Nahid Islam and Md Sarjis Alam‘s blistering critiques of the interim government’s advisers, suggesting they want “safe exits,” reveal a deepening fracture ahead of the elections, slated for February.
The accusations of “safe exits” and betrayal underscore not just internal discord but a broader crisis: clashing visions for elections, simmering army frustrations, geopolitical manoeuvring, and the persistent spectre of an Awami League resurgence. Far from a unified front, Bangladesh’s transition risks unravelling into chaos, with implications rippling across South Asia.
The ‘safe exit’ scandal
At the heart of the current turmoil lies a schism within the interim government’s advisory council, exposed raw by the two top leaders of the King’s party.
Nahid Islam, who resigned as an adviser in February 2025 to helm the NCP, unleashed a torrent of frustration in an interview with Ekattor TV on October 5, labelling the inclusion of non-student advisers a “big mistake.”
He accused many of forging ties with established political parties, prioritising personal “safe exits” over the uprising’s ideals, and even “betraying the mass uprising” by securing their futures at the expense of reforms.
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“It was our mistake to trust many of the advisers,” Nahid lamented, vowing to name names when the moment ripens. He argued that without the “force of the uprising,” the government would collapse within three months, a nod to the fragile legitimacy it derives from student momentum rather than institutional buy-in.
Sarjis Alam amplified this on October 7 in Naogaon, delivering a visceral rebuke: advisers eyeing a “respectable exit” through elections should remember that “the only real safe exit in this world is death.”
He scorned their half-hearted duties, standing “on the blood of countless martyrs,” and warned that public accountability—via social media or street confrontations—would follow them anywhere.
Sarjis urged bold reforms aligned with the uprising’s aspirations, decrying a mindset that treats the interim role as a mere pit stop. This rhetoric, echoing Nahid’s, has ignited social media debates, with critics accusing the NCP of internal purges while supporters hail it as a bulwark against complacency.
The “safe exit” controversy exposes a core tension: the advisers, drawn from civil society and technocrats, were meant to bridge the revolutionary youth with pragmatic governance. Instead, Nahid claims they capitulated to party pressures, diluting reforms like judicial independence and electoral overhauls.
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Remaining student advisers like Mahfuj Alam and Asif Mahmud face their own crossfire—Nahid previously accused the council of a “silent consensus” to “humiliate and eliminate” Mahfuj amid attacks by AL remnants. This infighting, amplified by NCP’s youth base, risks alienating the very masses who propelled Yunus to power, turning the interim setup into a symbol of disillusionment.
Stakeholders at loggerheads over timing and inclusivity
Elections loom as the flashpoint, with stakeholders pulling in opposite directions. Yunus has floated polls between December 2025 and June 2026, contingent on reforms via the National Consensus Commission (NCC), which has engaged parties on caretaker governments and voter lists. Yet, this ambiguity fuels accusations of foot-dragging.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), eyeing a comeback under exiled Tarique Rahman (set to return for the vote), demands a December 2025 timeline, warning that support for Yunus could wane without it. BNP’s protests in Dhaka—its first against the interim regime—signal eroding patience, especially after a disputed 2020 mayoral race.
The NCP insists on deeper changes first, rejecting rushed polls that could entrench old elites.
Sarjis echoed this on October 6, slamming the Election Commission (EC) for arbitrary symbol allocations—like denying NCP the “shapla” (water lily)—and probing registrations of dubious entities like the Bangladesh National League, suspected as AL proxies.
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He decried “outdated criteria” legitimising parties, vowing NCP would contest with “shapla” or face EC shame. This pits reformers against restorers, with the NCC’s slow progress—now in its second round—exacerbating delays.
The AL was banned in May 2025 under the Anti-Terrorism Act until trials conclude, and the Election Commission suspended its registration the same day.
Sarjis thundered that “no attempt to create any version of the Awami League” would be tolerated, branding its beneficiaries as irredeemable fascists. Nahid’s call for AL trials underscores this: “No alliance with major parties for now,” he said, prioritising justice over expediency. Yet, whispers of a “refined” AL—sans Hasina loyalists—persist, fueled by army overtures and BNP ambivalence, deepening NCP paranoia.
Army Tensions: A ‘cold war’ with the interim regime
The Bangladesh Army, pivotal in Hasina’s fall by refusing her orders, now chafes under Yunus’s extended tenure. General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s May 2025 speech demanded December polls, decrying political “mudslinging” and signalling dissatisfaction. This sparked a “cold war,” with Yunus briefly mulling resignation amid army pressure for AL rehabilitation. Though Yunus stayed after emergency talks, the rift endures: the army backs reforms but opposes prolongation, deploying forces for law and order while eyeing a swift democratic handover.
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NCP’s March 2025 cantonment meeting with Waker—denied as “pressure” but revealed by Sarjis—fueled suspicions of military meddling in AL revival. The general reportedly viewed youth leaders as “sons” and advocated a “clean” AL splinter for stability, clashing with NCP’s ban demands.
This internal NCP spat—Hasnat Abdullah vs. Sarjis—highlights army influence, with protests and curfews in AL hotspots like Gopalganj underscoring volatility. As elections near, the army’s dual role—stabiliser and kingmaker—could tip the scales, especially if Yunus’s reforms falter.
Geopolitics: Yunus’s tightrope and regional ripples
Bangladesh’s domestic strife intersects with great-power chess. Yunus’s regime, initially hailed as a “blessing in disguise” by AL’s Obaidul Quader for exposing governance failures, now navigates US-China-India rivalries. India, Sheikh Hasina’s refuge, backs “free, fair” polls but frets over AL’s ban straining ties—Vikram Misri’s October 2025 Dhaka visit urged inclusivity amid border sensitivities. Delhi’s pragmatic outreach, including Yunus’s Voice of Global South invite, aims to counterbalance anti-India rhetoric from BNP and NCP.
China, Hasina’s economic patron, eyes Yunus warily post-AL ban, potentially leveraging Belt and Road investments for leverage. Yunus’s ASEAN aspirations—bolstered by Anwar Ibrahim’s October visit—signal diversification, reducing Delhi’s orbit while courting Malaysia and Indonesia. The US, per Yunus’s NPR chat, supports reforms but distances itself from AL exiles, prioritising stability over Hasina nostalgia.
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AL’s sidelining disrupts regional equilibria: India’s Teesta water-sharing dreams stall, while Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis festers without Dhaka’s Hasina-era mediation. A BNP victory under Tarique could revive anti-India hawks, per BBC reports. Yunus’s “pragmatic” foreign policy—per Misri—seeks equity, but AL’s ghost risks proxy battles.
The Awami League’s Shadow: Revival or reckoning
The AL, once Bangladesh’s bedrock, haunts the discourse. Banned since May 2025, its trials under the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) loom, with Hasina’s extradition bid from India ongoing.
Sarjis’s vow—no “version” of AL tolerated—mirrors NCP’s March protests demanding its proscription. Yet, revival murmurs persist: Obaidul Quader sees “explosive” openings in Yunus’s “fundamentalist” tilt, while exiled leaders eye a 2025 comeback.
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