While the Yunus-led interim administration has been portraying the Awami League as a demonic force using the media and carrying out mass arrests in a record number of murder cases, one year into the changeover, independent journalists at home and global media reports suggest that attempts to keep the party at bay will be a boomerang.
Meanwhile, the leading parties that are key allies of the regime have engaged in heated arguments over major reform proposals, including those related to the next elections—slated for early February—and many allege that the regime has lost credibility to hold an impartial and fair election due to its inclination towards the King’s party—National Citizen Party (NCP)—and hardline Jamaat-e-Islami.
International organisations, like the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and the Atlantic Council, the Indian government, and independent journalists, including Masood Kamal, have criticised the government for banning the political activities of the Awami League in an executive order, instead of through a court order, and termed the decision an act of revenge.
The volley of political cases (over 2,00,000), the arrest of over 4,00,000 people linked to the Awami League, the imprisonment of over 1,50,000 leaders and activists, including over 100 former ministers and parliamentarians, killings in mob attacks, and deaths in custody in the past year give a grim picture of the vengeful mindset of the Yunus-led government.
The situation is worse as the government’s advisers, including Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, NCP leaders and its top influencers, the attorney general, and the Jamaat-led International Crimes Tribunal’s prosecution continue to threaten the Awami League with a complete ban and demand the capital punishment of its top leaders, including the party President and five-time Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina.
In addition, the exile of over 2,00,000 leaders and activists, including Sheikh Hasina, points to an uncertain future for her party. But the leadership is confident that the party will get a good number of seats if they are allowed to participate in the elections.
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Mohammad Ali Arafat, an exiled state minister, alleges that the party’s supporters are being silenced by not being allowed to contest the next election. “The elections will not be inclusive without the participation of the Awami League,” he told the BBC.
An article by the Atlantic Council published last week said that extremists are emboldened, minorities are oppressed, political rivals are targeted, and the economy is wobbling.
“Bangladesh isn’t just faltering; it’s performing a painful autopsy on its own revolutionary aspirations. Without a free, fair, and inclusive election—soon—the nation teeters not at democracy’s threshold but at anarchy’s precipice,” it said.
Banning the Awami League, which has won the most elections in Bangladesh’s history, played a role in its founding and retains a significant voter base, risking replicating authoritarian tactics that it itself is often accused of.
“Such exclusion may effectively disenfranchise a significant segment of voters, undermine electoral legitimacy, push politics back into the streets, and set a dangerous precedent where each government purges its rivals.”
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The article said that the elections should be held soon, “made inclusive, let justice target individuals rather than parties, and allow Bangladeshis themselves to choose their future. Anything less would turn their democratic spring into an authoritarian winter, with a brief, illusory thaw in between.”
It said that anger has its place, but democracy thrives on choice, not vengeance. “Legal trials of AL leaders can—and should—coexist with the AL’s electoral participation. Allowing the party on ballots doesn’t equal absolution; instead, it ensures justice without collective punishment of supporters who weren’t culpable.”
Local journalists see no hope
Zillur Rahman, senior journalist and popular TV anchor, says the Yunus regime does not actually want to hold the elections in February, as he observed from the current circumstances.
“It is not possible for this government to hold the elections in a free and fair manner. They are not capable, and they do not want to hold an election either.
“This government is not neutral. It has blessings for the NCP.”
Governing the state is a political issue. Politics means interactions with the people and feeling the public pulse. Only knowledge and wisdom are not enough to do politics. Most of those in the government do not have engagement with the people, he said in his show on YouTube on Monday.
Zillur Rahman said the NCP is now trying to reach a compromise with the BNP to ensure some seats in the next elections, as their acceptance among the people is eroding.
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He expects that the Awami League will show remorse and bring to the fore the leaders with a clean image and with the courage to make an impact in the elections.
“The Bangladeshi political parties understand nothing but going to power and staying in power. I am sorry to say this.
“On the other hand, some say the civil society leaders are better. But it is not true. They could be wise and knowledgeable, but they cannot deliver. They are worse than the politicians.”
For an inclusive and participatory election, the Awami League should be allowed to participate in the election, he added.
Citing a survey result of the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), where half of the respondents are undecided about which party to vote for, he said that people’s interest in politics is eroding due to depoliticisation.
Senior journalist Masood Kamal thinks the Awami League still has a huge support base despite the allegations of corruption and abuse of power against its leadership. He does not agree to the process of banning the party’s activities and suggests that the government should let the voters decide whether the Awami League should do politics or not.
Like his peers, he is also doubtful about the elections in February. This doubt stems from the image of the chief adviser that he has created in the past year.
“People do not believe his words. They do not have trust in him. He is an internationally renowned person, but this reality is pathetic. People are not interested in elections,” the journalist said in a podcast on Monday.
He added that the BIGD’s survey result from last year found that 38% of the respondents were undecided about whom to vote for. This year, the percentage of respondents has risen to 48%.
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“Why is an increasing number of people not interested in elections? It has happened because this government has created a field for elections where people do not know who they will see in the race.
“Jamaat wants a proportional representation (PR) system in the elections; they may boycott it if the government does not introduce it. The NCP has said that they may boycott the elections if the trials and reforms are not done.”
He added that due to the ban on the Awami League’s activities, the party would not be able to take part. So, it is obvious that voters will be in a vague situation.
“The Awami League got the lowest vote in its history in the 2001 elections; the number was 2,28,00,000. Even if the number of supporters may have gone down, there will be at least 1,00,00,000 voters who would vote for the Awami League. These people will not vote for any other parties.”
In a democracy, every vote counts. “Can a government deprive them of voting for their favourite party? This is not democracy.”
This is why many people are undecided about whom to vote for. “Who are you to ban a party from participating in the elections? You are not an elected government, either. You have unseated a government. But a government and a party are not the same thing.”
He said that the government can arrange a trial of those responsible for crimes in the Awami League.
“Jamaat killed more people in 1971 than the Awami League did in its tenure. Did you try Jamaat? If you want to ban the Awami League, do it through the court. Let them defend themselves. I have no objection. Banning the party through an executive order is not justified.”
He asked the government and the Election Commission to keep the maximum options for the voters.
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