Few narratives are as paradoxical as that of Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Yunus in the volatile landscape of South Asian geopolitics. Branded by critics as an “India-hater” regimeโdue to its vocal anti-India rhetoric, support for Islamist elements, and diplomatic snubs toward New Delhiโthe administration has nonetheless orchestrated a dramatic surge in rice imports from its “next-door neighbour.”
This move, ostensibly to stabilise domestic markets, exposes a glaring hypocrisy: a government that campaigns on nationalist fervour against India finds itself economically tethered to it. As rice trucks rumble across borders like Benapole and Bhomra, one must ask: Is this pragmatic policy or a sign of deeper vulnerabilities? This op-ed dissects the timeline of recent imports, key decision dates for rice and onion purchases, Bangladesh’s robust rice production and stockpiles, and an analysis that reveals the regime’s strategic missteps.
The surge in rice imports under the Yunus regime marks a stark reversal from earlier self-sufficiency boasts. Bangladesh, historically a rice-dependent nation, has achieved remarkable agricultural gains in recent decades, yet the interim government’s policies have precipitated artificial shortages, forcing reliance on India. Data from border ports indicate a rapid escalation: from sporadic shipments in late 2025 to bulk imports exceeding thousands of tons by early 2026. This dependency not only undermines the regime’s anti-India stance but also raises questions about economic mismanagement amid record domestic production.
Recent Rice Imports
The resurgence of rice imports began modestly in mid-2025 but accelerated under Yunus’s watch, particularly after his assumption of power in August 2025. Here’s a chronological breakdown based on port records and government announcements:
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– August 21, 2025: The first notable import post a four-month hiatus. Nine trucks carrying 315 tons of non-basmati boiled rice entered Benapole Port’s Yard No. 31. This followed a government announcement on August 13, 2025, allowing duty-free imports of up to 500,000 tons to stabilise prices. Importers claimed this would reduce retail prices by Tk5-7 per kg, but the move signalled early market jitters.
– August-November 2025: Over these three months, Benapole alone facilitated 6,128 tons of rice imports from India. This period laid the groundwork for larger-scale dependencies, with duty-free incentives luring importers amid fluctuating domestic prices.
– December 2025: No major imports recorded through key ports, but this lull preceded a policy pivot. The regime focused on internal procurement, yet market whispers of shortages grew.
– January 18, 2026: A pivotal escalation. The government granted permission to 232 importing firms for 200,000 tons of rice, with a deadline of March 3, 2026, for market release. This decision, framed as a response to price hikes, effectively opened floodgates for Indian supplies.
– January 21-22, 2026: Imports resumed at Bhomra Port after a 50-day closure. In two days, 36 trucks delivered 1,447 tons of rice. Firms like Ismail Hossain Sardar Aluminum Store and Hanef Enterprise led the charge, citing government directives to normalise supply.
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– January 27, 2026: Benapole saw 22 trucks import 770 tons of non-basmati boiled rice in seven consignments, handled by Haji Musa Karim & Sons. This marked the end of a three-month import drought at the port.
– January 31-February 1, 2026: A rapid follow-up at Benapole: 37 trucks brought in 1,350 tons over two days (770 tons on January 27, plus additional on February 1). Again, Haji Musa Karim & Sons was the importer, with costs averaging Tk50 per kg including duties.
These imports, totalling over 3,882 tons in January-February 2026 alone through Benapole and Bhomra, represent a surge driven by duty-free policies. The regime’s narrative ties this to maintaining “tolerable” prices, but critics argue it’s a cover for procurement failures.
– August 13, 2025: Initial announcement for duty-free import of 500,000 tons of rice to curb price spikes.
– December 9, 2025: Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase approved 50,000 tons of non-basmati boiled rice from India’s Messrs Nutriagro Overseas OPC Pvt Ltd at $351.49 per ton (Tk42.98 per kg), costing Tk214.9 crore total.
– December 15, 2025: Another 50,000 tons approved from India’s M/S Bagadia Brothers Pvt Ltd at $351.11 per ton (Tk42.98 per kg), totalling Tk214.7 crore. These were justified as “emergency” measures for FY 2025-26.
– January 18, 2026: Permission for 200,000 tons granted to 232 firms, with a March 3 deadline, emphasising non-basmati coarse rice to avoid domestic fine rice competition.
Rice Production And Stock Levels
Bangladesh’s rice narrative is one of triumph overshadowed by policy pitfalls. According to the Agriculture Ministry and Food Directorate:
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Production:
– FY 2023-24: Total grain production reached 4.87 crore tons, including 4.19 crore tons of rice (2.26 crore tons Boro, 1.65 crore tons Aman, 0.28 crore tons Aush).
– FY 2024-25: Rice output rose to over 4 crore tons, a 4.1% increase, with total grains at 5.03 crore tons (including 10 lakh tons wheat and 74 lakh tons maize).
– FY 2025-26 Projections: Aman season targets exceed 1.81 crore tons, with 59.23 lakh hectares cultivated. By January 2026, 53.71 lakh hectares yielded 1.97 crore tons at 3.11 tons/hectare. Boro and Aush are expected to match or surpass prior years.
Stocks:
– As of January 2026: Government warehouses hold 21 lakh tons of food grains, including 19 lakh tons of rice and 2.03 lakh tons of wheatโa record high compared to the past five years.
– Private stocks are also ample, with no inherent shortages reported.
These figures underscore bumper harvests, attributed to favourable weather and agricultural extensions. Yet, prices for fine rice rose, blamed on millers prioritising government sales (deadline advanced to January 15, 2026) and speculative hoarding.
Hypocrisy, Mismanagement, And Geopolitical Bind
The Yunus regime’s “India-hater” label stems from its post-Sheikh Hasina era rhetoric: accusations of Indian interference, border tensions, and alliances with anti-India forces. Yunus himself has critiqued India’s regional dominance, yet his government imports staple foods from New Delhi at accelerating rates.
This surgeโover 10,000 tons in recent monthsโexposes economic fragility. Despite record production (over 4 crore tons annually) and stocks (21 lakh tons), imports are justified by “artificial crises” from hoarding and procurement disruptions during political transitions.
Analysts like agricultural economist Mobarak Hossain point to global stability aiding production, but local instabilityโincluding the regime’s focus on consolidation over supply chainsโexacerbates issues. Business leaders like Alhaj Nizam Uddin argue that no real shortage exists; it’s profiteering. Food Advisor Ali Imam Majumdar claims “strong reserves,” but actions suggest otherwise. The upcoming Ramadan (likely March 2026) amplifies risks, with imports timed to avert unrest.
Alternatives like Thailand exist, but India’s proximity and lower costs (Tk50/kg vs. higher global rates) prevail. The regime’s decisions risk inflating deficits (e.g., Tk429 crore for December rice alone) while alienating farmers through import competition.
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