In the azure expanse of the Bay of Bengal, where turquoise waves lap against fragile coral shores, St. Martin’s Island stands as a jewel of biodiversityโand a pawn in a high-stakes geopolitical game. Bangladesh’s only coral island, a mere eight square kilometres of paradise teeming with sea turtles, vibrant reefs, and rare marine life, has long symbolised the nation’s environmental and strategic vulnerability.
The conspiracy theory, fueled by five-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s exiled loyalists and regional analysts, posits that the Yunus regimeโwidely perceived as US-backedโis engineering St. Martin’s isolation to facilitate American military access. She had repeatedly accused Washington of orchestrating her downfall over her refusal to cede the island.
In a June 2023 parliamentary address, she quipped: “I could have stayed in power if I’d leased St. Martin’s to America,” linking it to US demands for an airbase in exchange for electoral support to her rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Her son, Sajeeb Wazed, later disavowed fabricated quotes, but the damage was done. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller dismissed the claims in 2023 as “not accurate,” affirming respect for Bangladesh’s sovereignty. Yet, sceptics point to a pattern of denials masking persistent pressure.
Under the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, new eco-tourism guidelines issued on October 22 ostensibly aim to protect the island’s fragile ecosystem. Critics, however, decry them as a smokescreen for a deeper plot: clearing the way for a US military base that could reshape South Asia’s power dynamics, counter China’s influence, and erode Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
The guidelines, notified by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change under Section 13 of the Bangladesh Environment Conservation Act, impose stringent controls on tourism. Visitors must now purchase e-tickets via the Bangladesh Tourism Board’s portal, each affixed with a QR-coded travel passโnon-compliant tickets deemed “fake.”
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Daily footfall is capped at 2,000 tourists, a sharp drop from the previous 6,000 on weekends. Overnight stays are banned in November, permitted only in December and January, and prohibited entirely in February for “ecological recovery.” Motorised vehicles, barbecues, loud noises, and single-use plastics are outlawed, with prohibitions on harming biodiversity hotspots like keya forests and sea turtle nesting grounds. The Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) requires ministerial approval for all vessels, transforming the once-bustling island into a regimented eco-sanctuary.
On the surface, these measures align with global calls for sustainable tourism. The island, declared an Ecologically Critical Area (ECA) in 1999, has suffered decades of degradation: coral bleaching from unchecked development, plastic pollution choking marine life, and over-tourism eroding its natural barriers against erosion. Environmentalists, including Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan, the daughter of a razakar who chaired a key implementation meeting on October 21, hail the rules as a “benchmark for responsible travel.”
Dr. Yunus himself urged “united efforts” in June 2025 to safeguard the island, emphasising alternative livelihoods for locals amid tourism limits. Yet, beneath this green veneer lies a narrative of foreign intrigue, where conservation serves as camouflage for conquest.
St. Martin’s strategic allure is undeniable. Perched nine kilometres south of Cox’s Bazar and eight kilometres from Myanmar’s Rakhine State, it overlooks vital sea lanes connecting the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. The Bay of Bengal, rich in untapped oil, gas, and fisheries, is a linchpin in the US Indo-Pacific Strategyโa $16 billion web of alliances aimed at encircling China.
A US base here would enable surveillance of Chinese naval movements, monitor the Strait of Malacca (through which 80% of China’s oil imports flow), and project power into Myanmar’s unstable hinterlands. Proximity to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islandsโhome to a nuclear submarine facilityโadds another layer: American eyes could track New Delhi’s sea-based deterrents, uncomfortably close at under 500 kilometres.
As one analyst noted in Swarajya magazine, such a foothold “renders India’s nuclear posture redundant,” tilting the regional balance toward Washington.
The Yunus era, born from the ashes of Sheikh Hasina’s regime, has amplified these fears. Installed as interim chief adviser after protests that echoed the Arab Springโcomplete with social media-fueled youth uprisings and Islamist undertonesโYunus is no stranger to Western ties. His Grameen Bank, lauded by Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, drew US funding amid microfinance controversies.
Joint US-Bangladesh exercises have proliferated: “Tiger Lightning 2025” in Sylhet trained counterterrorism forces; “Tiger Shark” in Chittagong honed special operations; and “Pacific Angel 25-3” in September simulated disaster response with C-130 Hercules flights. These manoeuvres, involving 80-150 US troops each, coincide with drone deliveries like the RQ-21 Blackjack UAS for maritime surveillanceโofficially for “peacekeeping,” but suspiciously aligned with Bay of Bengal monitoring.
Conspiracy theorists, drawing parallels to post-Arab Spring interventions in Libya and Syria, argue Yunus is the “Western puppet” Sheikh Hasina warned of. Secret pacts, they claim, include rejecting a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) under Sheikh Hasina but advancing US agendas covertly.
The eco-guidelines fit this narrative: by slashing tourism and enforcing vessel controls, the regime allegedly “prepares” the island for restricted access, evicting locals under the guise of conservation. Activists allege that Yunus prepared St. Martin fully to hand it over to the US, only for Washington to pivot toward a “joint base under Indian supervision” amid shifting alliances. Local stakeholders decry the economic fallout: 6,000 jobs tied to tourism, Tk1,000 crore in investments, now imperilled.
Hoteliers in Cox’s Bazar report 70% revenue drops, with islanders facing food shortages as supply boats dwindle.
Broader accusations paint Yunus’s administration as a conduit for US-UN machinations. Analysts claim that the regime greenlit a UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) office to “impose cultural hegemony,” promoting LGBTQ+ rights and Christianity in Muslim-majority Bangladeshโechoing East Timor’s independence playbook.
Advisers like Syeda Rizwana Hasan, who spearheaded the St. Martin’s meeting, are labelled “US-linked activists” for their environmental advocacy, allegedly softening resistance to foreign incursions.
Sheikh Hasina, from exile, alleged in May 2025 that Yunus was “selling the country to the US,” tying it to Rohingya camps near St. Martin’s, where US Special Forces (like the late Terence Arvel Jackson, a Green Beret found dead in Dhaka’s Westin Hotel) purportedly train militants for a “civil war” to justify intervention.
These claims evoke historical precedents. Post-2011 Arab Spring, US forces flooded Libya and Syria under “humanitarian” pretexts, fragmenting states and securing bases. In Bangladesh, the pattern allegedly repeats: protests suppressed as “democracy movements,” Yunus installed via “non-violent” transition, and now, eco-rules as the Trojan horse.
A leaked 2023 US embassy cable revealed persistent overtures for a “naval facility” on St. Martin’s, denied publicly but pursued via NGOs. With China advancing its Belt and Road via Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu port, Washington eyes Bangladesh as the “gateway to the Gulf.”
Even a single US guided-missile destroyer docked here could destabilise the region, fueling extremism and insurgencies while diverting attention from domestic woes like poverty and floods.
Yet, not all see malice in the guidelines. Environmental groups like the Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon argue that over-tourism has bleached 60% of the reefs, with plastic waste equivalent to 500,000 bottles annually. The cap, they say, mirrors successful models in the Maldives, fostering “high-value, low-impact” visitors.
Yunus’ June 2025 call for “alternative employment” in fisheries or eco-crafts could sustain 1,500 islanders. US denials persist: Ambassador Tracey Jacobson in August 2025 reiterated: “No base, only partnership.”
But in Dhaka’s rumour mills and social media, scepticism reigns. Indian political observers have warned that the US eyeing a naval base at St. Martin is a matter of concern for India too.
As October 2025 wanes, St. Martin’s beaches lie eerily quiet, patrolled by BIWTA enforcers scanning QR codes. Is this salvation for a dying ecosystem or the prelude to subjugation? The island’s fate mirrors Bangladesh’s: a nation caught between superpowers, where green policies mask grey ambitions.
Sheikh Hasina’s ghost haunts the discourse, her warnings a rallying cry for sovereignty. If the conspiracy holds, Yunus’ “eco-paradise” could become America’s forward operating base, turning coral into concrete and dreams of independence into distant echoes. For now, the waves whisper secrets, but the tides of geopolitics wait for no one.
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