Bangladesh is poised for a potential political upheaval as the Supreme Courtโs Appellate Division prepares for an October 21 hearing that could reinstate the caretaker government system, potentially dissolving the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus and lifting the ban on the Awami League to join the elections, slated for February 2026.
Amid allegations of foreign backing from Pakistanโs ISI, Turkey, and the US deep state, coupled with domestic controversies over the interim governmentโs legitimacy, the ruling could reshape the nationโs democratic and geopolitical landscape.
The caretaker system, enacted in 1996 via the 13th Constitutional Amendment to ensure neutral election oversight, was struck down as unconstitutional in 2011.
A recent survey shows 83% of the public supports the caretaker system, driven by distrust in the interim government due to deteriorating law and order due to state-sponsored mob violence, and over 2,500 reported minority attacks since August 2024.
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Review petitions from civil society figures like SHUJANโs Badiul Alam Majumdar (a US citizen), Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, and Jamaat-e-Islamiโs Mia Golam Porwar prompted the court to grant leave to appeal the 2011 verdict on August 27.
Chief Justice Syed Refaat Ahmed, a BNP nominee leading a seven-member bench, has emphasised the need for a โsustainable framework for democracy.โ Attorney General and former BNP leader Md Asaduzzaman is also in favour of revisiting the system.
The Yunus-led interim government, formed after the August 5 jihadist-army coup last year, faces intense scrutiny. Its legitimacy is under fire from Sheikh Hasina, who claims she never resigned as prime minister, alleging that the interim government forged the signature of a former chief justice to seek an opinion under Article 106 of the Constitution, which governs constitutional interpretations.
This controversy, combined with a reported loss of public trust, has fueled demands for accountability.
Civil society groups, including some Yunus supporters, are calling for the seizure of passports of interim advisers and investigations into alleged corruption before their tenure ends, citing concerns that over a dozen advisers with dual citizenship might flee.
Yunusโ National Citizen Party (NCP) leaders, key players in the 2024 protests, fear prosecution under a restored caretaker system. Their provocations against the Bangladesh Army are aimed at weakening the armed forces and strengthening the Jamaat-backed mobs.
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Reports also point to rushed financial allocations, project awards to allies, and the targeting of army officers in trials at the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT). These trials are deemed illegal by critics, as the ICT was established to prosecute 1971 war criminals, and its expansion via executive order to target recent cases lacks constitutional legitimacy.
The Awami League, whose activities were suspended on May 10, 2025, under the Anti-Terrorism Act for its alleged role in protest-related deaths, has seen a resurgence in public support, with polls showing 40% backing.
From exile in India, party President and five-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has demanded multi-party elections under a caretaker government for a โsmooth democratic transition.โ Lifting the ban could enable the partyโs electoral return, which scares the NCP, Jamaat and the BNP.
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The interim governmentโs gazetted list of 834 martyrs from the July riots has also been questioned, with the daily Prothom Alo revealing at least 52 fake entries among the injured and martyrs, prompting ongoing verifications by district commissioners.
The Awami League has challenged the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) report estimating up to 1,400 deaths during the July-August 2024 protests, calling it biased and methodologically flawed, as the members of Jamaat-Shibir helped Volker Turkโs team to prepare the report.
The Awami League demands an impartial inquiry, alleging the report ignores post-August 15 violence, including the massacre of at least 44 police officers and numerous Awami League activists, which it terms a โgenocideโ under international conventions.
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Critics further contend that accusations against Awami League leadership are largely false, fabricated, and driven by revenge rather than rule of law or neutrality, with corruption allegations against the party deemed concocted.
Meanwhile, Yunus has withdrawn his own legal cases, and the interim regime has reportedly pressured courts to acquit criminals and drop charges against its stakeholders, including BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Hefazat-e-Islam.
Geopolitical tensions add complexity. Sources allege that Pakistanโs ISI and Turkeyโs MIT are supporting Jamaat-e-Islami with funds and arms to groups like Ansar al-Islam, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HuJI-B) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), aiming to destabilise Indiaโs border. Turkey has reportedly financed Jamaatโs infrastructure and defense projects, aligning with President Erdoganโs regional ambitions.
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