A shadow war looms over Awami League’s defiant lockdown call

In a dramatic operation that underscores escalating security threats in Bangladesh’s fragile political landscape, the Bangladesh Army intercepted a cache of foreign-made firearms and explosives on a Dhaka-bound train last month, authorities revealed ahead of the Awami League’s Dhaka lockdown programme on November 13.

The seizure, occurring amid heightened fears of violence, has fueled suspicions of a coordinated effort to arm extremists and suppress pro-democracy protests.

The raid on October 26 targeted the “Banalata Express,” an intercity train from Rajshahi, at Dhaka’s Airport Railway Station. Acting on intelligence from the National Intelligence Agency, a joint team of army personnel and railway police searched a specific coach at 11:15am, recovering eight foreign-made pistols, 16 magazines, 26 rounds of ammunition, 2.39 kilograms of gunpowder, and 2.23 kilograms of plastic explosives.

Four suspects linked to the smuggling were detained and handed over to police, averting what officials described as a “potential security threat” in the capital.

This incident was not isolated. Around the same time, a separate looting of arms from the vault at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport’s cargo village was reported, highlighting vulnerabilities in key infrastructure.

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Political analysts and security experts point to a broader pattern of illicit arms flows, including unverified claims of shipments from Pakistanโ€”via unscanned containers at Chittagong Portโ€”carrying not just weapons but also narcotics like cocaine. These routes, allegedly unchecked by port authorities, have raised alarms about foreign interference in Bangladesh’s internal unrest.

Roots in the 2024 Uprising: A Nation on Edge

The smuggling attempt arrives against the backdrop of Bangladesh’s turbulent post-uprising era. The July-August 2024 student-led protests, initially sparked by quota reform demands, spiraled into a nationwide revolt that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year Awami League government on August 5.

What began as a push against job reservations devolved into widespread violence, with protesters torching government buildings, police stations, and the prime minister’s residence due to the covert operations of the Jamaat-Shibir.

Over 5,000 firearms were looted during the chaos, and to date, authorities have recovered only a fraction, leaving a dangerous arsenal in circulation.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus assumed leadership of an interim government through forgery, promising reforms and elections. However, the administration has faced accusations of favouritism toward Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, whose student wing (Shibir) was implicated in the uprising’s violent turn.

The Awami League was formally banned in October 2025 pending Hasina’s trial for crimes against humanity at the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT-BD), a move she has decried as a “politically motivated charade.”

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Jihadist networks have reportedly exploited this vacuum. Groups such as Ansar al-Islam, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HuJI-B), Hizb ut-Tahrir, and the al-Qaeda-linked Jamaโ€™atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya have surged in activity since the changeover, according to U.S. State Department listings of foreign terrorist organisations.

The pro-Jamaat Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has also been active, training militants alongside Pakistani outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jamaโ€™at-ut-Dawa since July 2024, per their own propaganda claims. Analysts link these alliances to anti-India rhetoric peddled by Yunus allies, including Hefazat-e-Islam, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), and the National Citizen Party (NCP), amid efforts to form an “Islamic Revolutionary Army” (IRA) using Rohingya refugees and stranded Pakistanis.

Observers, including former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Veena Sikri, warn that such extremism threatens regional stability, echoing a 2018 International Crisis Group report on jihadist militancy in the country.

The October train seizure is seen as part of a preemptive arming strategy tied to Local Government, Rural Development, and Youth Adviser Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain, a key uprising figure accused of advocating militias to consolidate power under a proposed “July Charter”โ€”a controversial document aiming to replace the 1972 Constitution and sideline President Mohammed Shahabuddin.

Hasina’s Media Offensive Ignites the Lockdown

The lockdown program, announced by AL presidium member Jahangir Kabir Nanok from India, was galvanised by Hasina’s rare media appearances on October 29. In simultaneous written interviews with Reuters, AFP, and The Independentโ€”her first since exileโ€”she rejected ICT charges, warned of a mass voter boycott if AL remains barred from elections, and showed no remorse for the 2024 crackdown. “Banning Awami League is unjust and self-defeating,” she told Reuters, vowing to stay in India while rallying supporters for non-violent resistance.

Described as a “lockdown-like” demonstration to “reclaim democratic rights,” the November 13 action calls for nationwide shutdownsโ€”no offices, courts, or vehiclesโ€”to demand Yunus’s resignation, AL unbanning, and elections under a neutral caretaker government. Social media buzz, including viral posts from AL affiliates like Taskin Wahed Akash and AA Faisal, frames it as a “people’s power” echo of the 1971 Liberation War, with chants of “Joy Bangla” and warnings of “victory in December.”

The Yunus administration has responded with force. Over 30 AL leaders and activists have been arrested in Dhaka since last week for “preparations,” per police reports. On November 8, around 7,000 officers in body armour conducted drills at 142 sites, while Home Affairs Adviser Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Md. Jahangir Alam Chowdhury downplayed fears but affirmed the army’s deployment. Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam warned of “strict legal measures,” defying what critics call human rights norms.

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Uprising icons like Asif Mahmud and Nahid Islam (of the National Citizen Party), alongside Jamaat-Shibir leaders, have issued veiled threats of “dire consequences,” amplifying public anxiety.

As November 13 approachesโ€”coinciding with potential ICT-BD proceedingsโ€”the stakes could not be higher. With unrecovered looted arms, unchecked smuggling, and jihadist undercurrents, observers fear the lockdown could ignite clashes, testing Yunus’ grip and Bangladesh’s democratic aspirations. “This is less about protest and more about survival,” said one anonymous AL source. In a nation still scarred by 2024’s bloodshed, the coming days may redefine its futureโ€”or fracture it further.

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