A recent analysis warns that an upcoming parliamentary election in Bangladesh, which excludes the Awami Leagueโthe country’s largest political party, traditionally seen as representing around 60% of votersโcould undermine democratic legitimacy and create significant strategic challenges for India.
In an op-ed published on January 6, journalist Jack Raymond argues that the February 12 election, under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, risks disenfranchising a majority of the electorate by barring the Awami League, whose activities remain banned following the 2024 political upheaval.
Raymond, who reports on Asian geopolitics and regional security for AFVnews, warns that such an “exclusionary election” would not only lack public mandate but also open the door to the resurgence of pro-Pakistan Islamist forces, potentially reshaping South Asia’s security landscape.
“The current election roadmap… breaks from [inclusive] logic,” Raymond writes. “By excluding the Awami League, it disenfranchises a majority of voters, eliminates meaningful competition, and risks producing a government without public mandate.”
He highlights several developments raising concerns in New Delhi:
– The re-entry of Islamist parties like Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing into mainstream politics after years of restrictions.
– Renewed activity by groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and Hefazat-e-Islam, which have mobilised protests and propagated anti-India narratives.
– Increased anti-India rhetoric from some political actors and reports of growing Pakistan-Bangladesh diplomatic engagement.
These trends, Raymond contends, could lead to heightened cross-border militant risks, weakened counterterrorism cooperation, and expanded space for external interference along India’s eastern borders.
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The analysis also addresses humanitarian implications, noting that religious minoritiesโincluding Hindus, Christians, and Ahmadi Muslimsโoften face the brunt of instability and Islamist mobilisation. Recent weeks have seen a surge in targeted violence against minorities, exacerbating fears of displacement and communal spillover into India.
“If extremist groups gain influence or protection, targeted violence and displacement become more likely,” Raymond states, describing minority protection as both a “moral obligation” and “strategic necessity” for India.
Urging New Delhi to adopt a more assertive diplomatic stance, Raymond advocates for “principled engagement” through pressure for inclusive polls, coordination with international partners, and clear signalling that exclusionary processes carry consequences for bilateral ties.
“Bangladeshโs stability is inseparable from Indiaโs national security,” he concludes. “Allowing an exclusionary election to proceed unchecked would lock in risks far greater than any short-term diplomatic discomfort.”
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