Tarique Rahman to return on Christmas Day: Is the door truly open?

In a dramatic announcement that sent ripples through Bangladesh’s fragile political landscape, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir declared late Thursday that the party’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, will finally return to Dhaka on December 25 after nearly 18 years in self-imposed exile in London.

The news, delivered at a press conference in Gulshan, was framed as a “message of relief” for the nation, promising to sweep away obstacles to democracy and pave the way for fair elections. Yet, just 24 hours later, sceptics are already questioning whether this homecoming—long teased but never delivered—is anything more than political theatre amid mounting “political realities” that have kept Rahman at bay for over a decade and a half.

Fakhrul, speaking with evident glee to a room packed with journalists and senior BNP leaders, painted Rahman’s arrival as a triumphant milestone. “Our struggling leader, who has guided the democratic movement for nearly a decade from exile, will set foot on Dhaka’s soil on December 25,” he said, emphasising that the party would extend a formal welcome.

He linked the return directly to recent breakthroughs, including a meeting between Rahman and Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus in London, which reportedly greenlit mid-February elections. “The barriers to rescuing democracy will vanish once he arrives,” Fakhrul added, urging the media to highlight the event’s significance and calling for a “smooth and beautiful” reception.

The announcement followed an emergency session of BNP’s standing committee, where Rahman himself joined virtually from London to preside. Present were heavyweights like Dr. Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, Mirza Abbas, and Gayeshwar Chandra Roy, underscoring the party’s unified front. Fakhrul’s rhetoric escalated the hype, insisting the return would fulfil public expectations and ignite the “election train” now chugging toward polls.

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For Rahman loyalists, this is vindication. The 60-year-old son of ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has been the BNP’s shadowy architect since fleeing to the UK in 2008 for medical treatment after his release from prison. Arrested in 2007 amid the military-backed 1/11 regime’s crackdown, Rahman has faced a litany of charges under the ousted Awami League government—from the 2004 grenade attack on an opposition rally to corruption and money laundering.

Last year’s student-led uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s regime led to stays on his sentences and procedural halts in several cases, but no full exoneration.

Yet, the fanfare feels premature to many observers, echoing a pattern of unfulfilled promises that have dogged Rahman’s saga. Just two weeks ago, on November 29, Rahman himself admitted in an emotional Facebook post that he yearned to rush to his mother’s bedside—Zia, 80, has been critically ill in Evercare Hospital’s CCU since November 23 with a severe lung infection—but could not due to vague “political realities.”

The interim government’s press secretary swiftly countered: no restrictions, no objections. But as of Friday evening, no flight bookings, visa confirmations, or safe-passage guarantees from Dhaka’s judiciary had surfaced. A diplomat at Bangladesh’s High Commission in London told The Business Standard that Rahman hadn’t even applied for a travel pass.

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This isn’t the first false dawn. On December 11, Fakhrul teased an “imminent” return that would make “the whole country shake,” only for the specifics to materialise a day later—or so it seems. Political analysts point to deeper fault lines: lingering hostility from student activists and security hardliners who view Rahman as a symbol of the BNP’s corrupt 2001-2006 rule, when he was accused of orchestrating violence and graft from the infamous “Hawa Bhaban” power centre. Even within BNP ranks, whispers of unease persist over his governance credentials and opaque finances, fueled by recent exposés questioning his London lifestyle.

Then there’s Zia’s health, now bolstered by VVIP status and elite Special Security Force protection—a move announced December 1 that some tie directly to Rahman’s potential arrival, amid unverified “invisible threats.” Fakhrul dismissed conflicting media reports on her condition Friday, insisting it’s stable and urging prayers, but the emotional leverage—a son barred from his dying mother—feels like a calculated ploy to pressure the Yunus administration.

If Rahman does land on Christmas Day, it could galvanise the BNP ahead of February’s vote, positioning him as the heir to Zia’s legacy and a counterweight to reformist forces. But without tangible steps—a quashed conviction, ironclad security, or even a boarding pass—this feels like hype over substance. Bangladesh’s post-Hasina era is a house of cards; one wrong move, and Rahman’s “relief” could unravel into another round of recriminations. For now, the nation watches, prays for Zia, and waits—again—to see if exile’s end is real or just another echo in the wind.