By Dr. Akash Mazumder
It is a policy simulation report based on a hypothetical threat scenario involving the National Citizens Party (NCP) and radical militant actors planning an attack on Bangabhaban, the Presidential Palace of Bangladesh, for the next 10 days.
This policy simulation presents a hypothetical scenario in which radical Islamist groups, with indirect support or ideological alignment from elements within the National Citizens Party (NCP) and segments of a state-aligned military-fascist regime, coordinate a symbolic and strategic assault on Bangabhaban, the Presidential Palace of Bangladesh. The simulation aims to test national readiness, identify institutional vulnerabilities, and simulate counter-strategies for protecting critical state assets.
1. Objectives of the Simulation
To assess the convergence of radical Islamist actors and state-sponsored political factions like NCP.
To simulate the response of Bangladesh’s intelligence, law enforcement, and political command structures.
To explore policy gaps, digital misinformation flows, and mobilization methods.
To design prevention mechanisms and a risk mitigation plan.
This simulation is designed for academic, strategic, and security policy analysis purposes.
Nullifying ouster plots, President Shahabuddin attends army event
Complaint filed at ICC against 3 army officers, Yunus-Waker for Gopalganj massacre
2. Hypothetical Scenario: Timeline and Threat Trajectory
Day 1โ3: Intelligence Intercepts
National Cyber Unit intercepts encrypted messages from a Telegram group linked to banned radical outfits like Ansarullah Bangla Team.
Keywords: โเฆเฆฎเฆพเฆจเง เฆนเฆพเฆฎเฆฒเฆพ,โ โเฆฌเฆเงเฆเฆญเฆฌเฆจ เฆชเฆคเฆจ,โ and โเฆฐเฆพเฆเฆจเงเฆคเฆฟเฆ เฆธเงเฆฒเฆพเฆฎเฆฟโโcodewords indicating a symbolic high-value attack.
Sources within Chattogram and Brahmanbaria report strange NCP youth mobilization camps.
Day 4โ6: Mobilization and Coordination
Militant operatives reportedly gather in Narayanganj and Jashore disguised as religious da’wah groups.
NCP-linked student groups circulate narratives online calling for “reclaiming the Islamic Republic dream.”
Anonymous fundraising traced through cryptocurrency wallets and small NGO fronts operating in Uttara and Khilgaon.
Day 7โ9: Test Run and Misinformation Campaign
A false flag drone flyover triggers panic near the Ministry of Home Affairs. It is later linked to remote operatives.
Social media bots begin circulating messages claiming the โpresidency is illegitimateโ, calling for โpopular Islamic uprising.โ
Why has Kingโs party NCP failed to meet prerequisites to get registered?
Yunusโ NCP forced to cancel road march events for criticising BNP
Rumours of โmilitary dissentโ spread on fringe YouTube channels, allegedly from pro-NCP defectors.
Day 10: Hypothetical Attempted Attack
Militants, disguised as media personnel, attempt to breach Gate 3 of Bangabhaban during a diplomatic event.
Simultaneously, a coordinated cyber-attack shuts down communication across RAB and DGFI networks for 45 minutes.
A diversionary riot occurs in Lalbagh, enabling distraction of state security forces.
3. Policy Implications
3.1 Rise of Political-Militant Nexus
Radical ideologies have found institutional legitimacy through vehicles like NCP.
Former military personnel and bureaucrats linked with extremist sympathizers create deep state vulnerabilities.
3.2 Symbolic Targets under Siege
Attacks on institutions like Bangabhaban aim to destroy national morale, challenge democratic authority, and invite foreign destabilization.
3.3 The Algorithmic Threat
4. Counter-Strategy Recommendations
The digital front is weaponized: AI-generated deepfakes, fake fatwas, and forged presidential orders circulate widely.
A. Intelligence Renovate
Establish a Presidential Security Digital Threat Unit (PSDTU) under NSI.
Monitor financial flows using AI-fintech tracking, especially through crypto and mobile banking.
B. Strategic Communication
Deploy pre-bunking campaigns against false religious narratives.
Introduce mandatory digital literacy and fact-check networks in madrasas.
C. Legislative and Legal Response
Enforce the Terrorist Financing Prevention Act with real-time data sharing among BFIU, CTTC, and MoICT.
Consider a Parliamentary Commission on Political Radicalization, reviewing NCP and similar actors.
D. Tactical Security Measures
Triple-tier Zone Red Protocol around Bangabhaban for symbolic events.
Use facial recognition drones during crowd entry and media access screening.
5. Simulation Outcomes (Hypothetical)
| Scenario Outcome | Risk Level | Response Time | Casualties | Political Fallout |
| Attack Prevented (Ideal) | Moderate | 20 minutes | 0 | Diplomatic embarrassment only |
| Partial Breach | High | 45 minutes | 3โ5 | Major policy crisis |
| Symbolic Damage | Only Moderate | 60 minutes | None | Social panic, media backlash |
| Attack Succeeds (Unknown) | Severe | 90+ minutes | 15โ30 | Collapse of public trust |
6. Conclusion
This simulation highlights the urgency of reassessing how extremist ideology, political legitimacy, and state apparatus collusion can endanger national symbols like Bangabhaban. It advocates for hybrid defense mechanisms combining intelligence, digital surveillance, community policing, and political accountability.
7. Further Recommendations for Research
-Ethnographic study on NCP recruitment narratives in rural madrasas.
-Psychological analysis of religion-political martyrdom symbolism in Bangladesh.
-Comparative study: Islamist Militancy and Symbolic Institutions (Pakistan, Tunisia, Bangladesh).
Dr. Akash Mazumder: Political and Conflicts Analyst
English